The Warning Signs Arrive Before the Sirens:
Scientists Found A Warning Sign Before Civil Wars - YouTube Is America Sliding Into the "Anocracy Zone"? A broadly sourced examination of what the civil-war forecasters actually measure—and where the United States now stands on their checklist. By Pseudo Publius BLUF — Bottom Line Up Front The scholarship that governments actually use to forecast political violence does not predict civil war from poverty, inequality, or ethnic diversity. It predicts it from a specific, measurable condition— anocracy , the unstable middle ground between settled democracy and settled autocracy—combined with political parties organized around identity rather than ideology. By that framework, the United States is now flashing several of the recognized early indicators at once: independent democracy indices record the steepest U.S. decline they have ever measured; confidence in Congress (9 percent), the presidency (27 percent), the Supreme Court (27 percent), and the criminal-justice syst...