China's Invasion Has Begun - Strategic Vulnerability in America's Pacific Frontier

CNMI's Critical Role in Indo-Pacific Defense and the Urgent Need for Corruption Investigation

A comprehensive analysis of the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands' strategic importance and the security implications of Chinese influence operations

Executive Summary

The Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) represents a critical vulnerability in America's Pacific defense architecture at a time when the territory has never been more strategically important. With the U.S. military investing over $800 million in upgrading facilities on Tinian as part of the Agile Combat Employment strategy to counter China's growing missile threat, the recent death of Governor Arnold Palacios—the territory's most vocal opponent of Chinese corruption—has created a dangerous power vacuum. The FBI's decision to close investigations into Chinese money laundering operations just weeks before Palacios's sudden passing raises profound questions about America's commitment to securing its own sovereign territory against foreign influence operations.

Geographic and Strategic Significance

The CNMI occupies a unique position in the Second Island Chain, consisting of 14 islands spanning 300 miles in the Western Pacific. The territory is poised to celebrate five decades as a commonwealth in March 2026 — the 50th anniversary of then-United States President Gerald Ford signing the joint resolution creating the commonwealth "in political union with the U.S." More critically, Northern Mariana and its three main islands — Rota, Saipan and Tinian — have grown in strategic importance as the U.S. and its Allies and Partners uphold a Free and Open Indo-Pacific amid China's military buildup and its escalating coercion in the Taiwan Strait, and the South China and East China seas.

The CNMI's proximity to potential conflict zones cannot be overstated. Located approximately 1,500 miles from both Japan and China, and just 207 kilometers north of Guam's critical military installations, the territory offers unparalleled access for power projection across the Western Pacific. In an unclassified report released in July 2023, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command identified the CNMI— along with Guam— as the "most forward U.S. territories in the Pacific" that "are critical to U.S. defense and power projection across the region" amid the growing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.

Tinian: The Cornerstone of Pacific Defense Strategy

The restoration of Tinian's North Field represents the most significant U.S. military infrastructure project in the Pacific since World War II. Over 20 million square feet of runways and other World War II-era infrastructure at historic North Field on the U.S. island of Tinian in the Western Pacific have been cleared and rebuilt. The four 8,500-foot-long runways of North Field, as well as their associated taxiways, were visible in an image taken on January 26 as they have almost completely restored and cleared of overgrowth.

This massive undertaking serves multiple strategic purposes within the broader Agile Combat Employment (ACE) doctrine. The airfield rehabilitation is being performed under Agile Combat Employment, an operational concept that aims to complicate enemy targeting by dispersing forces into smaller groups. Tinian will come in handy if access to Andersen Air Force Base is limited or unavailable. The facility's historical significance adds strategic depth to its modern utility: North Field seen during World War II. This picture was taken before the fourth runway was built. At the height of operations in 1945, North Field had four 8,500-foot-long runways and associated taxiways, ramp space for more than 500 B-29s, and other facilities to support the approximately 40,000 personnel stationed at the base.

The investment scale reflects the Pentagon's commitment to the region. The defense department is currently constructing a divert on Tinian, which has been designated as an alternate site in the event that Anderson Air Force Base on Guam is rendered inoperable due to any attack. The Commonwealth Port Authority said the defense department has invested $161.8 million to build the first phase of the project, which is expected to be completed in October 2025. Additionally, In its 2025 budget request, the U.S. Air Force is proposing $409 million to complete the Tinian airfield project.

The Agile Combat Employment Strategy

ACE represents a fundamental shift in U.S. air power doctrine, moving away from vulnerable centralized bases toward distributed operations. Under this doctrine, planes disperse and operate from a variety of forward locations at a tempo fast enough to outpace an adversary's targeting cycle. The strategy acknowledges the reality of China's growing missile threat: according to Army Techniques Publication 7-100.3: Chinese Tactics, the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is "the largest missile force in the world, operating well over 1,000 short-range, medium-range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and over 300 long-range cruise missiles."

However, ACE faces significant challenges in implementation. China's doctrine and resources support a capability to strike parked military aircraft at all seven U.S. military installations with runways in the Pacific and any aircraft displaced to the 14 airfields in the Pacific region. The strategy's success depends on maintaining multiple viable operating locations, making CNMI's political stability and resistance to foreign influence critical to national security.

The Chinese Influence Operation: Imperial Pacific Casino

The Imperial Pacific International casino saga represents one of the most brazen foreign influence operations conducted on U.S. soil in recent memory. IPI has been building a gaudy, rococo gaming palace — now paused — on CNMI's biggest island, Saipan, since 2016. It's a project beset by a grim catalog of labor violations, missed deadlines, and lawsuits. The operation's financial metrics defied credibility: In 2017, a temporary casino set up in a shopping mall to train dealers while the main property was being built, was generating $2 billion per month in revenues. Thanks to a stream of Chinese high rollers flown in by its owners, it was briefly the highest-grossing casino in the world.

The scale of suspected money laundering was staggering. Bloomberg investigations revealed that this small casino was processing more money per table than established Macau operations, with the gaming floor says it's taking in around $2-4 billion in bets each month. That's a staggering statistic, and is far higher than what five-star integrated casino resorts generate in Macau, the world's richest gambling hub.

Compromising American Leadership

Perhaps most concerning was Imperial Pacific's systematic penetration of American political and security establishments. The casino operators successfully recruited former high-ranking officials to provide legitimacy and access: Former CIA director James Woolsey was on the board and advisors included former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former FBI director Louis Freeh, and former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, according to Bloomberg. This created potential conflicts of interest at the highest levels of government just as national security concerns were mounting.

Immigration and Labor Violations

The CNMI's unique visa waiver program for Chinese nationals created a security vulnerability that Imperial Pacific systematically exploited. Chinese citizens can enter CNMI without visas for 14-day stays, ostensibly for tourism promotion. However, When FBI agents recently raided an office on the U.S. island of Saipan, they unlocked a cabinet full of Chinese passports belonging to construction laborers without work credentials. The agency, which made at least one arrest, said it was acting on reports of "systematic human smuggling."

The security implications extend beyond labor violations. Chinese nationals have used the CNMI as a gateway to reach more sensitive locations: hundreds of Chinese without visas have been traveling to Guam, with some found on U.S. military bases during missile testing periods, raising immediate counterintelligence concerns.

Governor Palacios: The Lonely Sentinel

Arnold Palacios emerged as the sole high-ranking CNMI official willing to confront Chinese influence operations and demand federal investigation of corruption. Having spent a good part of my career dealing with public and private corruption, I never once saw a top official ask to be investigated and mean it. That takes courage and, ultimately, a deep love for one's constituents and country. His isolation was profound: In the FDD interview, he said the situation left him feeling like "John the Baptist out in the desert. That's how lonely it has been."

Palacios's requests for federal intervention were explicit and urgent. On April 24, 2025, he asked CNMI Del. Kimberlyn King-Hinds to ask FBI Director Kash Patel to do "intensive investigations of public corruption" in CNMI, mentioning he has "considerable evidence to provide." His advocacy extended beyond corruption to encompass broader security concerns about Chinese economic dependence and the need for transparency in government operations.

Sudden Death and Unanswered Questions

Palacios collapsed at his Capitol Hill office on July 23, 2025, and was airlifted for medical treatment to Guam Regional Medical City in Dededo, Guam. Apatang said Palacios passed away peacefully on the evening of Wednesday, July 23, 2025, surrounded by loved ones. The timing raises significant concerns: just weeks after the FBI announced closure of investigations into Imperial Pacific and related corruption, and months after Palacios's urgent appeals for federal intervention, the territory's most prominent anti-corruption voice was silenced.

FBI Investigation Closure: A Strategic Failure

The FBI's decision to close investigations into Imperial Pacific and related corruption represents a profound failure of counterintelligence priorities. A word about Director Patel's shutting down investigations into former CNMI Governor Ralph Torres, the Imperial Pacific casino and related matters in July 2025 was perplexing and stupid. This decision needs to be reexamined. Multiple federal agencies had documented evidence of money laundering, labor trafficking, immigration violations, and potential corruption of public officials, yet chose not to pursue charges despite years of investigation.

The closure came despite overwhelming evidence of criminal activity. In November 2019, the FBI raided the offices of Imperial Pacific for evidence of money laundering and wire fraud, and a federal grand jury subpoenaed the company regarding a corruption probe involving links with Northern Mariana Islands governor Ralph Torres. Federal agencies had also documented systematic labor violations and immigration fraud, yet failed to connect these activities to broader national security implications.

Strategic Implications for Indo-Pacific Defense

The corruption and foreign influence in CNMI directly undermines critical military infrastructure development. Grant Newsham mentions that a Chinese-linked casino secured permission to operate on Tinian Harbor, through which US military supplies and materials move. Newsham notes that the casino provides an excellent view of its maritime approach, making it an ideal operations center for Chinese intelligence services. This positions Chinese actors to monitor and potentially disrupt the very military infrastructure investments designed to counter Chinese aggression.

The broader pattern extends beyond CNMI. Newsham also says China is building an airfield at Yap for "tourism" purposes and has invested in strategically located land at Angaur in Palau, where the US plans to place an over-the-horizon missile defense radar. Newsham also says China is angling to refurbish the defunct US airfield at Kanton in Kiribati for "tourism" purposes. This represents a coordinated campaign to compromise U.S. strategic positions across the Pacific.

Military Exercise Integration and Regional Cooperation

Despite these vulnerabilities, CNMI continues to play an expanding role in U.S. military exercises and regional partnerships. FORUM, which is celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2025, has highlighted the role of the Northern Mariana Islands in Allied and Partner engagements over the years, including: A 22-day U.S. Coast Guard deployment across Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands to deter illegal activities and deliver humanitarian assistance in November and December 2024.

Recent exercises demonstrate growing operational integration. A key exercise that will directly involve our islands is Resolute Force Pacific or REFORPAC, a new, large-scale Air Force exercise set to take place from July 7 to August 8. These exercises validate CNMI's critical role in distributed operations while highlighting the security risks posed by unresolved corruption and foreign influence.

Recommendations for Action

Immediate Actions Required

1. Reopen Federal Investigations: Congress must demand the FBI reopen investigations into Imperial Pacific, CNMI corruption, and related Chinese influence operations. The timing of investigation closure and Governor Palacios's death demands congressional oversight.
2. Secure the Visa Waiver Program: The Chinese visa waiver program for CNMI must be immediately suspended pending comprehensive security review. The program has been systematically exploited for illegal labor trafficking and potential intelligence operations.
3. Enhanced Counterintelligence: Deploy additional counterintelligence resources to CNMI to assess the extent of Chinese penetration and monitor ongoing influence operations.

Long-term Strategic Measures

1. Governance Transparency: Implement mandatory federal oversight of CNMI government operations, including the accounting transparency that Governor Palacios requested.
2. Economic Diversification: Reduce CNMI's economic dependence on Chinese tourism and investment through targeted federal investment in sustainable economic development.
3. Military Infrastructure Security: Establish comprehensive security protocols for all personnel and contractors involved in military infrastructure projects, with particular attention to preventing foreign intelligence collection.
4. Regional Coordination: Strengthen intelligence sharing and security cooperation with Guam, Palau, and other Pacific partners to identify and counter Chinese influence operations across the region.

Conclusion

The Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands stands at the intersection of America's Pacific strategy and China's influence operations. As the U.S. military invests nearly a billion dollars in transforming Tinian into a critical node of distributed air operations, the territory's governance has been compromised by systematic corruption and foreign influence. The death of Governor Palacios removes the sole local leader willing to confront these challenges, while the FBI's decision to abandon investigations suggests a troubling failure to recognize the national security implications.

The stakes could not be higher. Success of the Agile Combat Employment strategy depends on maintaining secure, reliable operating locations across the Pacific. If CNMI falls completely under Chinese influence—economically, politically, or through compromised governance—the United States will lose a critical component of its Pacific defense architecture at the moment it is most needed.

Congress must act immediately to reopen investigations, secure the territory against further foreign penetration, and honor Governor Palacios's legacy by providing the federal oversight and support he repeatedly requested. The alternative is to cede strategic territory to Chinese influence operations while American taxpayers fund military infrastructure that Chinese intelligence services can monitor and potentially compromise.

The choice is clear: America must secure its Pacific frontier or risk losing the ability to defend it when the need arises. CNMI's strategic value demands nothing less than the full commitment of American power to ensure its security and integrity as a sovereign U.S. territory.

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