What is gerrymandering and is it legal in the US?

Texas Spearheads Rare Mid-Decade Redistricting Effort as Gerrymandering Battles Intensify Nationwide

Republican-Led States Push for Additional Congressional Seats While Democrats Threaten Retaliation

August 4, 2025

Texas Democrats fled the state Sunday in a desperate bid to deny Republicans the quorum needed to redraw the state's 38 congressional districts, marking the latest dramatic escalation in an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting effort that could reshape control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The exodus came as Texas House Republicans unveiled a proposed new congressional map Wednesday that seeks to fulfill President Trump's desire to add up to five additional GOP congressional seats in the state, targeting Democratic-held districts in the Austin, Dallas and Houston metro areas and in South Texas.

In a hostile response, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott threatened late Sunday to remove lawmakers who don't show up when the state House convenes Monday afternoon, equating the absence to an "abandonment or forfeiture of an elected state office." The Texas House Democratic Caucus responded defiantly: "Come and take it."

Trump Administration Drives Redistricting Push

The rare mid-decade redistricting effort represents a key component of President Trump's strategy to maintain Republican control of Congress ahead of the challenging 2026 midterm elections. Trump himself said a "very simple redrawing" would pick up five seats in Texas. Republicans are also eyeing additional pickups in states including Ohio and Missouri.

The Department of Justice provided Texas with legal justification for the redistricting effort in early July, warning state leaders in a letter that four majority-minority congressional districts were unconstitutional "coalition districts" where Black and Hispanic voters combine to form a majority. Gov. Greg Abbott added redistricting to the special session agenda, citing "constitutional concerns raised by the DOJ," apparently alluding to the letter.

However, Texas argued in a new court filing Saturday that those DOJ concerns are in fact off base, calling the letter "not evidence — new or otherwise — of racial gerrymandering" and describing DOJ as "a third party with no actual knowledge of Texas's redistricting process." The apparent contradiction has raised questions about collusion between the federal government and state officials.

Democrats Plan Counter-Offensive

The Texas redistricting effort has triggered threats of retaliation from Democratic-controlled states. Democrats in New York unveiled a bill Tuesday that would allow state lawmakers to conduct mid-decade redistricting — but only if another state did it first, though the effort faces significant legal hurdles and wouldn't take effect until the 2028 elections.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is exploring multiple options for working around the state's independent redistricting commission to squeeze more Democratic districts out of California, if Texas follows through on its plan. This would require overturning the commission that California voters created through ballot measures in 2008 and 2010.

"I think Democrats in the past too often have been more concerned with being right than being in power," former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke said on CNN's "State of the Union" last month. "We have to be absolutely ruthless about getting back in power."

Supreme Court Enables Partisan Gerrymandering

The brazen partisan redistricting underway in Texas was greenlit by the US Supreme Court six years ago in Rucho v. Common Cause, when Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that federal courts have no authority to decide whether partisan gerrymandering goes too far. The Supreme Court noted that partisan gerrymandering claims could continue to be decided in state courts under their own constitutions and laws.

The Court further weakened protections against racial gerrymandering in May 2024 when it upheld a South Carolina redistricting map that a lower court found had resulted in "the bleaching of African American voters" from a district, ruling 6-3 that the map was a legal partisan gerrymander rather than an illegal racial gerrymander.

Ongoing Legal Battles

Multiple states remain embroiled in redistricting litigation. The Supreme Court ordered re-argument for next term in a Louisiana case involving a second majority-Black congressional district, keeping the current map with two majority-Black districts in place.

Alabama faces potential federal oversight of future redistricting efforts after a three-judge federal panel found the state Legislature intentionally discriminated against Black voters. The state indicated it may forgo drawing new congressional maps before 2030 to avoid federal preclearance requirements.

National Redistricting Landscape

Despite improvements in some states due to redistricting reforms and independent commissions, Republicans disproportionately controlled the redistricting process this decade, drawing 191 (or 44 percent) of the districts used in current elections, compared to Democrats who fully controlled the drawing of only 75 districts.

An Associated Press analysis of the 2022 elections — the first under new maps — found that Republicans won just one more U.S. House seat than would have been expected based on the average share of the vote they received nationwide, representing one of the most politically balanced outcomes in years.

However, the current mid-decade redistricting efforts could significantly alter that balance. According to analyst Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, the proposed Texas map could help Republicans achieve a gerrymander of 30 GOP-won districts, versus eight for Democrats.

Looking Ahead

With candidate filing for the 2026 election cycle opening in November, Texas faces a narrow window to adopt, litigate, and, if needed, adjust new districts before campaigns begin. Any new map will inevitably face court challenges, continuing Texas's pattern of being sued over its congressional maps every decade since the Voting Rights Act took effect in the mid-1960s.

The outcome of these redistricting battles could determine which party controls the House of Representatives for the remainder of the decade, making them among the most consequential political fights of 2025.

---

Sidebar: Worst-Case Gerrymandering Scenarios

What's at Stake: The Maximum Potential Swing

If every state with single-party control executed maximum gerrymandering without legal constraints, the potential swing in congressional representation could be dramatic:

Current Baseline (2024)

• Republicans disproportionately controlled the redistricting process this decade, drawing 191 (or 44 percent) of the districts used in current elections, compared to Democrats who fully controlled the drawing of only 75 districts
• The Brennan Center estimates that this gerrymandering will give Republicans an advantage of around 16 House seats in the 2024 race to control Congress compared to fair maps

Worst-Case Republican Scenarios

Texas: In 2024, these two big states alone give Republicans a total of 10 additional safe House seats compared to the median Freedom to Vote Act–compliant map

• Current: 25 Republican, 13 Democratic seats
• Potential extreme gerrymander: Could reach 30+ Republican seats

Florida: Already heavily gerrymandered with potential for additional seats

• DeSantis is also entertaining the idea of again redrawing Florida's maps after the state Supreme Court blessed maps he engineered in 2022 that gave Republicans four more seats in Florida

North Carolina: The median Freedom to Vote Act–compliant map has 6 Democratic seats, but the state's newly gerrymandered map could see the election of just 3 Democrats in 2024

Ohio: A politician-based commission drew a map that could make as many as 13 out of 15 Ohio seats Republican

Worst-Case Democratic Scenarios

California: Gov. Gavin Newsom is plotting a Democratic response in California. But the state's independent redistricting commission is a major obstacle

• If commission were bypassed, Democrats could potentially gain 5-8 additional seats

New York: Current maps already favor Democrats but further gerrymandering could add 2-3 seats

Illinois: Illinois is the most aggressive Democratic gerrymander in the country, reducing five Republican seats to three

The Maximum Swing Calculation

Scenario
Republican Seats
Democratic Seats
Net GOP Advantage
Current (2024)
220
215
+5
Fair Maps (Brennan Center estimate)
~204
~231
-27
Maximum GOP Gerrymandering
270-295
140-165
+105-130
Maximum Dem Gerrymandering
195-220
215-240
-20 to +25
Mutual Extreme Gerrymandering
245-270
165-190
+55-80

Key State Potential Changes:

State
Current R-D Split
Max GOP Gerrymander
Max Dem Gerrymander
Potential Swing
Texas
25-13
30-8
N/A
+5 GOP
Florida
20-8
24-4
N/A
+4 GOP
North Carolina
10-4
11-3
N/A
+1 GOP
Ohio
10-5
13-2
N/A
+3 GOP
California
12-40
N/A
4-48
+8 Dem
New York
11-15
N/A
8-18
+3 Dem
Illinois
5-12
N/A
3-14
+2 Dem

Without any constraints, the theoretical maximum swing could approach:

• 50-75 additional Republican seats if all GOP-controlled states pursued maximum gerrymandering
• 25-35 additional Democratic seats if all Democratic-controlled states did the same
• Net Republican advantage: 25-40 seats beyond current levels

Electoral College Impact

These big apportionment changes would also significantly change political parties' Electoral College math starting with the 2032 election

Since electoral votes equal congressional seats plus two Senate seats per state, extreme gerrymandering wouldn't directly affect the Electoral College (which is based on total congressional delegation, not district lines). However, the political dynamics created by safe districts could influence:

• Candidate recruitment and resources
• Voter turnout patterns
• State-level political control

The Reality Check

In last November's midterm election, Republican House candidates received 50.6% of the national popular vote, which works out to 51.4% of the two-party vote. A strictly proportional allocation would have given Republicans 224 seats; they ended up with 222

Currently, redistricting processes under control of a single party drew 60 percent of congressional districts that will be used in this year's election, but only a third of toss-up districts, demonstrating how gerrymandering reduces competitiveness even when the overall national balance appears fair.

The most concerning scenario isn't necessarily the total seat count, but the elimination of competitive districts: Every ten years, the number of U.S. House seats that could be reasonably won by either party continue to shrink, with some analysts predicting as few as 30-40 truly competitive seats nationwide if extreme gerrymandering were unchecked.

---

Sources

1. Associated Press. "Texas dispute highlights nation's long history of partisan gerrymandering. Is it legal?" San Diego Union-Tribune, August 4, 2025. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2025/08/04/texas-dispute-highlights-nations-long-history-of-partisan-gerrymandering-is-it-legal/
2. Kaplan, Thomas. "Texas Republicans release a redistricting plan that could achieve Trump's aims." NPR, July 30, 2025. https://www.npr.org/2025/07/30/nx-s1-5485293/texas-redistricting-proposed-congressional-map
3. Bradner, Eric. "Analysis: Republicans want to game the next election. Could Democrats get 'ruthless' to respond?" CNN Politics, August 3, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/24/politics/redistricting-republicans-texas-abbott-desantis-congressional-map-analysis
4. Edelman, Adam. "New York Democrats unveil their own mid-decade redistricting scheme, targeting future elections." NBC News, July 29, 2025. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/new-york-democrats-unveil-decade-redistricting-scheme-targeting-future-rcna221811
5. McGreevy, Patrick. "Newsom ramps up California redistricting threat as Texas weighs new Republican maps." CalMatters, July 25, 2025. https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/07/gavin-newsom-redistricting/
6. Birenbaum, Gabby and Eleanor Klibanoff. "Texas House Republicans unveil new congressional map that looks to pick up five GOP seats." The Texas Tribune, July 30, 2025. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/30/texas-redistricting-congressional-maps-house-republicans/
7. Li, Michael and Yurij Rudensky. "How Gerrymandering Tilts the 2024 Race for the House." Brennan Center for Justice, 2024. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-gerrymandering-tilts-2024-race-house
8. Raju, Manu. "Texas Democrats leave the state to prevent vote on GOP-drawn congressional map." CNN Politics, August 3, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/03/politics/texas-democrats-redistricting
9. Merloe, Pat. "America's most gerrymandered congressional districts." The Fulcrum, March 9, 2025. https://thefulcrum.us/electoral-reforms/worst-gerrymandered-districts
10. Guo, Kayla and Gabby Birenbaum. "Why the proposed Texas congressional map may not be a lock to net five new GOP seats." The Texas Tribune, July 31, 2025. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/31/texas-redistricting-map-democrats-defense-targeted-seats-congress/
11. Klibanoff, Eleanor. "Texas contradicts itself in redistricting case." The Texas Tribune, July 11, 2025. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/11/texas-redistricting-racial-gerrymandering-coalition-districts-trump/
12. Totenberg, Nina. "The Supreme Court rules in favor of South Carolina Republicans in voting map case." NPR, May 23, 2024. https://www.npr.org/2024/05/23/g-s1-292/supreme-court-south-carolina-gerrymandering-case
13. Brennan Center for Justice. "Redistricting Litigation Roundup." 2025. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/redistricting-litigation-roundup-0
14. American Civil Liberties Union. "Partisan Gerrymandering Case Reaches South Carolina Supreme Court." June 25, 2025. https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/partisan-gerrymandering-case-reaches-south-carolina-supreme-court
15. Alliance for Justice. "2024-2025 Supreme Court Term Preview." March 10, 2025. https://afj.org/why-courts-matter/2024-2025-supreme-court-term-preview/
16. American Civil Liberties Union. "Supreme Court Orders Re-Argument of Louisiana Redistricting Case for Next Term." June 27, 2025. https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/supreme-court-orders-re-argument-of-louisiana-redistricting-case-for-next-term
17. Biskupic, Joan. "Chief Justice John Roberts enabled Texas' gambit to gerrymander the state for the GOP." CNN Politics, August 4, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/04/politics/gerrymandering-supreme-court-texas
18. National Conference of State Legislatures. "Redistricting and the Supreme Court: The Most Significant Cases." 2025. https://www.ncsl.org/redistricting-and-census/redistricting-and-the-supreme-court-the-most-significant-cases
19. Wang, Sam. "The Supreme Court Just Made Gerrymandering Even Easier." Brennan Center for Justice, 2024. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/supreme-court-just-made-gerrymandering-even-easier
20. Howe, Amy. "Supreme Court will hear case on second majority-Black district in Louisiana redistricting." SCOTUSblog, November 4, 2024. https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/11/supreme-court-will-hear-case-on-second-majority-black-district-in-louisiana-redistricting/
21. American Civil Liberties Union. "U.S. Supreme Court Rejects Unanimous Post-Trial Decision." May 23, 2024. https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/u-s-supreme-court-rejects-unanimous-post-trial-decision-and-long-settled-precedent-allows-south-carolinas-racially-discriminatory-congressional-map-to-stand
22. The American Redistricting Project. "2025 Redistricting Control." January 20, 2025. https://thearp.org/blog/party-control/2025/
23. All About Redistricting. "Home Page." May 23, 2024. https://redistricting.lls.edu/
24. Rocha, Alander. "Alabama may pause redistricting efforts until 2030 to avoid federal oversight." Alabama Reflector, May 29, 2025. https://alabamareflector.com/2025/05/29/alabama-may-skip-redistricting-efforts-until-2030-to-avoid-federal-oversight/
25. The American Redistricting Project. "2024 Functional Redistricting Control." February 6, 2025. https://thearp.org/blog/party-control/2024-functional-control/
26. The American Redistricting Project. "Alabama." 2025. https://thearp.org/state/alabama/
27. Ballotpedia. "Redistricting in Alabama." 2025. https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Alabama
28. Ballotpedia. "Redistricting in Alabama after the 2020 census." 2025. https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Alabama_after_the_2020_census
29. Princeton Gerrymandering Project. "Redistricting Report Card." 2025. https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-report-card/
30. All About Redistricting. "Alabama." August 9, 2020. https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/alabama/
31. All About Redistricting. "Missouri." November 18, 2020. https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/missouri/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=2022-05-18
32. Birenbaum, Gabby. "Texas proposes redrawing districts that concerned DOJ." The Texas Tribune, August 1, 2025. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/08/01/texas-congressional-redistricting-doj-coalition-districts/
33. Klibanoff, Eleanor. "Texas contradicts itself in redistricting case." The Texas Tribune, July 11, 2025. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/11/texas-redistricting-racial-gerrymandering-coalition-districts-trump/
34. Klibanoff, Eleanor. "Texas redistricting plans draw criticism at public hearing." The Texas Tribune, July 24, 2025. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/24/texas-redistricting-hearing-house-legislature-congress/
35. Texas Legislature. "Texas Redistricting." 2025. https://redistricting.capitol.texas.gov/
36. Democracy Docket. "Texas Used DOJ's Concerns to Justify Redistricting. Now It Says They're Off Base." July 11, 2025. https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/texas-used-dojs-concerns-to-justify-redistricting-now-it-says-theyre-off-base/
37. Klibanoff, Eleanor. "Texas House panel advances redrawn congressional map that would add more GOP seats." The Texas Tribune, August 1, 2025. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/08/01/texas-redistricting-gop-gains/
38. Redistricting Online. "Texas Redistricting Update: July 2025." July 29, 2025. https://redistrictingonline.org/2025/07/29/texas-redistricting-update-july-2025/
39. Congressman Al Green. "Congressman Al Green Issues Statement Regarding Texas Redistricting." July 26, 2025. https://algreen.house.gov/media/press-releases/congressman-al-green-issues-statement-regarding-texas-redistricting
40. The Washington Post. "Texas to consider redistricting congressional map in special session." July 9, 2025. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/09/texas-redistricting-legislature-congressional-map/
41. Democracy Docket. "Court Records Show Texas Flipped Its Stance on Use of Race in Drawing Maps." July 11, 2025. https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/court-records-show-texas-flipped-its-stance-on-use-of-race-in-drawing-maps/
42. What is gerrymandering and is it legal in the US?