ATSC 3.0 is coming: TV antenna users should prepare for chaos | PCWorld

The ATSC 3.0 Transition: A Risky Gamble for Broadcast Television's Future

New FCC rules could accelerate a technology transition that leaves millions of Americans unable to watch free TV—while threatening the very survival of broadcast stations

For the estimated 23 million American households that depend on free, over-the-air television through an antenna, a perfect storm is brewing. The Federal Communications Commission recently approved rules that would allow broadcast TV stations to abandon the current ATSC 1.0 standard and transition to ATSC 3.0 (NextGen TV) on their own timeline. Meanwhile, broadcasters' aggressive implementation of digital rights management encryption is locking viewers out of channels they can already receive with excellent signal strength. This combination threatens to undermine the business model that has sustained free television for generations.

The Current State of Chaos

On October 28, 2025, the FCC voted to eliminate the requirement that broadcasters simulcast programming in both ATSC 1.0 and ATSC 3.0 through mid-2027. The commission stated that this action would "support and accelerate the nation's ongoing voluntary market-based broadcast television transition to NextGen TV," giving broadcasters flexibility to determine when to end ATSC 1.0 transmissions. Stations can now switch to ATSC 3.0 exclusively with just 30 days' notice to viewers.

The National Association of Broadcasters had originally petitioned the FCC for mandatory deadlines—requiring stations in the top 55 markets to transition by February 2028, with all other markets following by February 2030. While the FCC stopped short of imposing these hard deadlines, the voluntary framework gives individual stations the power to make their own sunset decisions.

The DRM Problem: A Technology Disaster in Progress

The most troubling aspect of ATSC 3.0's rollout has been broadcasters' widespread adoption of digital rights management encryption. Nearly 24 percent of all ATSC 3.0 stations in the United States are now encrypted, up from 16 percent in July 2024. This encryption fundamentally changes the nature of free television—signals that travel over public airwaves now require an internet connection to receive decryption keys, and if internet service goes out during severe weather, free TV also stops working, cutting off access to important emergency information from local stations.

The encryption has created widespread equipment incompatibility problems. Apple TVs and Xbox consoles don't support the Google Widevine DRM that ATSC 3.0 requires, and neither do Roku devices or LG TVs for undisclosed reasons. Even certified ATSC 3.0 devices often fail. Nicholas Kelsey, president of SiliconDust USA, told the FCC that HDHomeRun OTA DVRs—which were certified as NEXTGEN TV devices—have been locked out of encrypted ATSC 3.0 channels due to rules set by the A3SA (ATSC 3.0 Security Authority).

Consumers spend anywhere between $100 and $300 on TV hardware that supports ATSC 3.0, only to be shut out of channels they can easily receive with ATSC 1.0, with no warning labels on the box. The situation has become so problematic that LG Electronics announced in October 2023 that it would no longer include ATSC 3.0 tuners in its U.S. products beginning in the 2024 model year, following a patent lawsuit—but also amid growing consumer frustration with the standard.

Perfect! I now have excellent information to create a comprehensive sidebar about the Google Widevine DRM proprietary lock-in issue. Let me add this to the article:

SIDEBAR: The Widevine Monopoly Problem

How Google's Proprietary DRM Locked Out the Competition

At the heart of ATSC 3.0's compatibility crisis lies a critical decision: the A3SA (ATSC 3.0 Security Authority) exclusively uses Google's Widevine DRM, with no current plans to support other decryption methods. This single-vendor approach has created a technological bottleneck that effectively gives Google—and by extension, the major broadcasters who control A3SA—unprecedented control over which devices can access free television broadcasts on public airwaves.

What Is Widevine?

Widevine is Google's proprietary content protection system, acquired in 2010 and integrated into Chrome, Android, and other Google platforms. While Widevine is used by major streaming services like Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, and YouTube, Google notes that a license agreement is required for use of Widevine products or services, though Widevine itself does not assess any fees.

The Incompatibility Crisis

The Widevine-only requirement has created massive device incompatibility problems:

Apple Ecosystem Excluded: Apple TVs, iPhones, iPads, Macs, and Xbox consoles don't support Google Widevine DRM—they use competing systems (FairPlay and PlayReady respectively). SiliconDust reports these platforms are unlikely to add Widevine support anytime soon, as ATSC 3.0 uses Google Widevine DRM encryption which is a competitor to Microsoft PlayReady DRM encryption.

Roku Limitations: While Roku devices technically support Widevine, there are "other A3SA requirements that cannot be met by an installable app," meaning encrypted ATSC 3.0 channels won't play on Roku streaming devices, even though Roku has successfully demonstrated playing encrypted test channels.

LG's Exit: LG, one of the largest TV manufacturers in the United States, completely walked away from ATSC 3.0 tuner support due to a lawsuit stemming from ambiguous patent requirements, though the company cited patent issues rather than DRM specifically.

The Gateway Device Problem

The most significant impact affects network tuner devices like HDHomeRun and Tablo, which allow a single antenna to serve multiple TVs throughout a home. SiliconDust told the FCC that "there is no pathway whereby a video gateway vendor could write an app for Roku, Xbox, Apple TV, iPhone, Windows or Mac supporting protected channels," noting these are "some of the most popular products people own and use".

YouTuber Lon Seidman observed that "with ATSC 1.0, if a manufacturer's product meets the FCC's standards, they can build a tuner and sell it on the market. But under ATSC 3.0, manufacturers must get approval from broadcasters, pay for testing and certifications, and potentially face high royalty fees from DRM".

Market Consequences

Competitive Neutrality Destroyed: While services like Netflix support multiple DRM standards—PlayReady, Widevine, and FairPlay—so they work on nearly any device, ATSC 3.0's single-vendor approach deliberately excludes major platforms. This represents a stark departure from the open nature of broadcast television.

Innovation Stifled: Third-party applications like Channels and Plex must get independently certified to play encrypted ATSC 3.0 content, with unclear prospects for certification. This certification requirement creates barriers to entry that prevent new DVR solutions and innovative viewing apps from entering the market.

Device Certification Expiration: According to forum discussions, A3SA certification "cards" for devices expire in 10, 15, 20 or 30 years depending on how much manufacturers pay—more years costs more money—meaning decryption will eventually shut down even on certified devices.

Small Manufacturer Exclusion: The combination of A3SA certification requirements, Widevine licensing procedures, and ongoing compliance costs makes it financially prohibitive for small hardware and software companies to enter the ATSC 3.0 market. This consolidates market power among large manufacturers who can afford the overhead.

The Google Leverage Factor

While Google states that Widevine "does not assess any fee for use of its products and services" and license agreements require no costs, this doesn't account for:

Integration costs for implementing Widevine support
Third-party Multi-DRM service fees (ranging from hundreds to thousands of dollars monthly for larger audiences)
A3SA certification and testing fees
Ongoing compliance and update costs

More importantly, Google's control over which platforms support Widevine creates a structural advantage for Android-based devices over competitors. Android, Android TV, Google TV, and Fire TV support Widevine, while "Apple and Microsoft don't build that in so they require more work"—work that may never be economically viable.

The Public Airwaves Paradox

As one Hacker News commenter observed: "The electromagnetic spectrum is OURS collectively. Public broadcast licenses are rooted in the idea of a well informed public is good for everyone. Encryption is just a move to monetize what is otherwise a public resource".

The irony is profound: broadcasters receive free access to public airwaves in exchange for serving the public interest, yet they've implemented a proprietary encryption system that prevents the public from accessing those broadcasts on many popular devices—even when they have strong signal reception and certified ATSC 3.0 tuners.

Alternative Path Not Taken

ATSC 3.0 could have mandated support for multiple DRM systems (Widevine, PlayReady, FairPlay) like streaming services do, ensuring maximum device compatibility. Or better yet, it could have followed the ATSC 1.0 model of no encryption whatsoever, preserving the open nature of broadcast television while still allowing broadcasters to pursue their new revenue opportunities through improved picture quality, interactive features, and addressable advertising without DRM.

Instead, the decision to use a single proprietary DRM system controlled by one company has effectively "turned this new standard into a proprietary one," requiring manufacturers to "get approval from broadcasters, pay for testing and certifications, and potentially face high royalty fees"—a fundamental transformation of how broadcast television operates.

The Widevine monopoly represents perhaps the clearest example of how ATSC 3.0 prioritizes broadcaster control over viewer access, transforming free public airwaves into a gated system where viewing permissions are controlled by private entities using proprietary technology from a single corporation.

The Viewership Paradox: Broadcasting to an Empty Audience

Here lies the central contradiction threatening broadcast television: stations are rushing to adopt a technology that their viewers cannot access, while their audience is already shrinking.

According to Nielsen's June 2025 report, viewership via broadcast linear channels like ABC, CBS and NBC made up just 18.5% of overall viewership, marking a new low. For the first time ever in May 2025, streaming captured a larger share of total TV usage (44.8%) than broadcast (20.1%) and cable (24.1%) combined. A Horowitz Research study found that homes with broadcast antenna access dropped from 32% in 2020 to 19% in 2025, while Nielsen data indicates approximately 22.75 million American households use over-the-air television.

Most critically, only about 11 percent of U.S. households can currently receive ATSC 3.0, based on broadcasters' estimate of approximately 14 million compatible TVs sold to date. This means 89% of households cannot access ATSC 3.0 broadcasts at all—and many of those who can are finding encrypted channels unwatchable.

The Revenue Trap: Chasing Data While Losing Viewers

Broadcasters justify the transition with promises of new revenue streams. Industry projections have been breathtakingly optimistic. The Pearl consortium claimed that fully deploying ATSC 3.0 could generate an additional $20 billion annually—effectively doubling the broadcast industry's current annual revenue. Research by BIA Advisory Services predicted that new datacasting revenue from NextGen TVs could reach $5 billion by 2027 and $10.7 billion by 2030, accounting for 22% of total local broadcasting revenues.

The allure is powerful: ATSC 3.0 enables addressable advertising, allowing broadcasters "to harness the revenue potential of turning their inventory from a linear advertising model to full addressability," which would "allow them to fit more campaigns in their inventory, which will in turn increase their revenue". For the first time, broadcasters would have two-way connectivity to media consumption on par with digital platforms, creating predictability of ratings metrics and increasing opportunity for advertising revenue.

But this business case has a fatal flaw: it assumes viewers will adopt the new technology. If stations transition to encrypted ATSC 3.0 before achieving critical mass adoption, they won't be broadcasting to anyone—and advertisers don't pay for commercials nobody watches.

What Happens to Stations That Jump Too Soon?

If broadcast stations switch to encrypted ATSC 3.0 while 89% of households cannot receive their signals, the consequences would be severe and immediate:

Advertising Revenue Collapse: Local television advertising—the financial lifeblood of broadcast stations—is sold based on audience reach and Nielsen ratings. If stations become unwatchable for the vast majority of their market, advertisers will flee to platforms that can actually deliver viewers. While linear TV is declining, it still reaches nearly 72% of persons age 18 and older on a monthly basis—but only if people can actually receive the broadcasts.

Retransmission Consent Negotiations Undermined: Cable and satellite providers pay broadcasters retransmission fees to carry their signals. These fees are negotiated based on viewership and market importance. Stations that abandon ATSC 1.0 prematurely lose leverage in these negotiations, as they're demonstrating that their over-the-air signal no longer serves most of the market.

Loss of "Must-Carry" Rights: Broadcast stations enjoy certain regulatory privileges based on their role as providers of free, universal television service. If they encrypt their signals and require internet connectivity and expensive equipment, they undermine the justification for these privileges.

Spectrum Reallocation Risk: Broadcasters use public airwaves under licenses granted by the FCC. If stations demonstrate that they're no longer effectively serving the public interest—by broadcasting signals that most people cannot receive—they risk regulatory intervention and potential spectrum reallocation to other uses.

Emergency Alert Obligations: Broadcasters have emergency alert system responsibilities. If encrypted ATSC 3.0 signals require internet connectivity to decrypt, this creates a fundamental problem during emergencies when internet service may be disrupted, potentially violating their public service obligations.

The Consumer Revolt

Public opposition to the transition has been intense. A Change.org petition titled "Save Free TV! Tell the FCC to END DRM Encryption of ATSC 3.0 Broadcasts" argued that "while it's likely that TVs will support this decryption, broadcasters can revoke any television brand's license at any time, and the encrypted content cannot be recorded or used in a DVR application of the customer's choosing".

The FCC acknowledged that "thousands of individual consumers have expressed concern that DRM encryption would place technological restrictions on consumer devices," and noted "widespread consumer frustration" with the implementation. ATSC 1.0 allowed viewers since the late 1990s to record anything on local broadcast channels with no encryption, no expiration on recordings, and no special license required—freedoms protected in part by the 1984 Supreme Court Betamax ruling. DRM fundamentally changes this.

Industry Opposition

Significantly, opposition comes not just from consumers but from within the broadcasting industry itself. The Consumer Technology Association, Public Knowledge, NCTA, America Television Alliance, Consumer Reports, the Low Power Television Broadcasters Association, and others have urged the FCC to reject mandatory transition plans. The CTA, representing TV manufacturers, argues that forcing ATSC 3.0 tuners into every new TV would increase manufacturing costs by $80 to $156 per set, with one analysis showing only about 8% of video viewers rely solely on a TV antenna.

Frank Copsidas, president of the LPTV Broadcasters Association, argued that forcing the transition would create "a forced wealth transfer to patent holders, creating a de facto private monopoly under the guise of technological advancement," potentially forcing small, community-focused stations off the air due to prohibitive costs.

The A3SA Gatekeeping Problem

Consumer groups argue that the A3SA—a private entity founded by major broadcast networks—permits "licensees of public spectrum to act as gatekeepers not only over the content they broadcast, but over the devices and technologies the public may lawfully use to access that content". According to forum discussions, A3SA certification "cards" for devices expire in 10, 15, 20 or 30 years depending on how much manufacturers pay, meaning decryption will eventually shut down.

This private governance of public airwaves represents an unprecedented transfer of control. The FCC questioned: "What is the impact of this encryption regime on the marketplace? Are the costs and requirements of the encryption program deterring market entry?"

The Path Forward (or Backward)

The broadcast industry faces a dilemma entirely of its own making. By combining a non-backward-compatible technology (ATSC 3.0) with aggressive DRM encryption and inadequate consumer adoption, broadcasters have created conditions where premature transition could trigger their own irrelevance.

The safer path would be:

Delay mandatory transitions until ATSC 3.0 tuner penetration reaches at least 50-60% of households
Eliminate or severely restrict DRM to restore the open nature of free television
Provide consumer subsidies for converter boxes, similar to the 2009 digital television transition
Mandate clear labeling on all TVs and equipment about ATSC 3.0 compatibility
Reform A3SA governance to include consumer representatives and transparent policies
Guarantee long-term ATSC 1.0 availability to protect current viewers

The FCC's current approach emphasizes a "voluntary, market-driven" transition, with Chairman Brendan Carr noting that "local broadcasters have unique insights into what works best in their communities". But market forces could prove brutal: stations that switch too early may find themselves broadcasting to an empty audience, while those that wait too long miss out on promised new revenue streams.

Bottom Line for Consumers

Until there's clarity about transition timelines and DRM policies, consumers should:

Avoid purchasing ATSC 3.0 equipment until DRM issues are resolved
Research TV purchases carefully to ensure they include both ATSC 1.0 and (if desired) ATSC 3.0 tuners
File comments with the FCC (docket number 16-142) expressing concerns
Contact local broadcasters asking about their specific transition plans
Consider streaming alternatives if equipment costs become prohibitive

The transition to ATSC 3.0 was supposed to secure broadcast television's future. Instead, the combination of incompatible technology, restrictive DRM, low adoption rates, and declining viewership has created an existential crisis. Stations that jump to the new standard before consumers are ready risk discovering that being first to a format nobody can watch is indistinguishable from going off the air entirely.

The greatest irony may be that broadcasters' pursuit of new digital revenue streams could accelerate the very trend they're trying to reverse: viewers abandoning free over-the-air television in favor of streaming services that actually work with their existing equipment.

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