Why Your Electric Bill Keeps Rising

Rising electric bills lead to state scrutiny — but little relief for residents – San Diego Union-Tribune

An Investigation into the Real Causes

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

American electricity bills rose 5.8% in 2025, adding approximately $100 per year for the average household—more than twice the rate of inflation. While some blame renewable energy, the evidence tells a more complex story: aging infrastructure replacement costs have doubled since 2005 to 7¢/kWh; natural gas prices jumped 37% from 2024 to 2025; capacity market prices in the mid-Atlantic region surged 833% in a single year due to premature coal and nuclear plant retirements combined with explosive data center demand; and state utility commissions systematically fail to control costs due to information asymmetry and a regulatory framework designed by utilities themselves over a century ago. The transition to wind and solar appears to be a minor contributor at most—though the retirement of reliable dispatchable generation to make room for intermittent renewables has created severe capacity shortages that are driving wholesale prices to record highs.

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The Numbers Don't Lie: Bills Are Rising Fast

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK — When Jennifer Martinez opened her November electric bill at her suburban Philadelphia home, she did a double-take. Her monthly payment had jumped from $147 to $184—a 25% increase in a single year. "I haven't changed anything," she told us. "Same house, same habits, same thermostat settings. Where is this coming from?"

Martinez isn't alone. Electricity prices nationally rose 5.1% from September 2024 to September 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—more than double the 2.4% overall inflation rate. Joint Economic Committee data shows electric bills increased 5.8% on average in 2025, costing households an extra $100 annually.

But national averages obscure dramatic regional disparities. From July 2024 to July 2025, Washington D.C. saw residential rates jump 24.5%, Maine increased 22.9%, and New Jersey rose 21.6%. Meanwhile, Hawaii and Nevada actually saw prices decline by 7.8% and 7.3% respectively.

When adjusted for inflation, a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study found that real electricity prices in 2024 matched those of 2019 and remained 8% below 2010 levels. Yet the rapid nominal increases since 2021—with prices rising 27% from 2019 to 2024—have strained household budgets. More than 52 million Americans were unable to pay their electric bills at least once in 2024, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, with approximately three million facing service shutoffs.

Looking ahead, ICF projects residential electricity rates will rise between 15% and 40% by 2030 depending on location, and could potentially double by 2050.

Cause #1: The Infrastructure Crisis You're Paying For

The single largest contributor to rising electricity costs isn't generation—it's the poles, wires, transformers, and substations that deliver power to your home.

Transmission and distribution costs have doubled since 2005, rising from 3.5¢/kWh to 7¢/kWh in 2024, even in inflation-adjusted terms, according to Thunder Said Energy analysis of data from 200 regulated US utilities. Major investor-owned utilities spent nearly $15.9 billion on transmission operations and $6 billion on distribution operations in 2022—figures that have steadily climbed for over a decade.

From 2014 to 2024, utility expenditures on building, maintaining, and operating transmission and distribution facilities grew from $240 billion to nearly $290 billion annually, a 20% increase, according to Energy Information Administration data compiled by the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Edison Electric Institute reports utilities invested upwards of $168 billion across the US electric grid in 2023, with 18% ($30.7 billion) spent on transmission infrastructure and 34% ($57.1 billion) on distribution infrastructure. Most went to capacity expansions, conventional replacement, and grid hardening. Notably, only about 7% of total transmission and distribution capital expenditures went toward advanced technologies.

Why Infrastructure Costs Keep Rising:

The American electric grid is old. The average age of transmission and distribution equipment exceeds 40 years, with many components dating back 50 years or more. When coal plant retirements occur, the weighted average age of retiring units is approximately 54 years—about 10 years older than operating units.

"We're constantly upgrading 50-year-old grid infrastructure with new poles, wires, and electrical components," explains a recent Fresh Energy analysis. Thanks to inflation and supply chain disruptions since 2020, this replacement work has become dramatically more expensive. The cost to build natural gas plants, for example, has tripled since 2022, from roughly $370-475/kW to $1,116-1,427/kW for projects completing in 2026-27, with costs expected to exceed $2,000/kW for projects not completing until 2030.

In Minnesota, Otter Tail Power plans to spend $994 million on transmission and $263 million on distribution from 2026-2030—nearly two-thirds of the utility's electric capital expenditures. The utility will spend just $510 million on clean energy during the same period, demonstrating that infrastructure, not generation, dominates cost increases.

Duke Energy Indiana filed plans in November 2024 for a six-year grid improvement investment that would increase customer bills approximately 1% per year through 2029 if approved by state regulators. Similar proposals are pending nationwide.

Cause #2: Natural Gas Price Volatility

Natural gas prices remain the single largest driver of year-to-year electricity price fluctuations, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory research.

From 2024 to 2025, natural gas prices for electricity generation jumped 37%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports natural gas prices rose 11.7% from September 2024 to September 2025—more than double the electricity price increase of 5.1% over the same period.

Gas prices spiked 140% in 2022 during the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Monthly spot Henry Hub gas prices have averaged $3.24/MMBtu over the past decade, but volatility has intensified. The Energy Information Administration expects natural gas prices for generating electricity to remain 37% higher in 2025 than in 2024, translating to a 4% increase for the residential sector.

What's driving this sustained increase? The United States is building export infrastructure to ship more liquefied natural gas overseas. We're exporting 25% more LNG in 2025 than in 2024, and additional export terminals are under construction. As domestic gas competes on international markets that pay higher prices, US electricity generators—and consumers—pay more.

Gas-fired generation accounted for 43% of US electricity in 2024 and 45% of capacity cleared in recent PJM capacity auctions, making gas price movements immediately felt across the grid.

Cause #3: The Capacity Market Crisis

Perhaps no single development better illustrates the complexity of rising electricity costs than what happened in the PJM Interconnection capacity market in 2024 and 2025.

PJM operates the electric grid and wholesale power market for 13 states plus the District of Columbia, serving over 67 million people. The capacity market pays power generators to commit to providing electricity three years in advance, ensuring adequate supply during extreme weather and peak demand.

In July 2024, PJM's auction for the 2025-2026 delivery year saw capacity prices spike to $269.92/MW-day for most of the region—an 833% increase from just $28.92/MW-day in the previous auction. The total cost jumped from $2.2 billion to $14.7 billion.

The July 2025 auction for 2026-2027 delivery brought even higher prices: $329.17/MW-day, a 22% increase, with total costs reaching $16.1 billion. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro sued PJM at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, securing a temporary price cap. Without that cap, prices would have exceeded $389/MW-day.

The December 2025 auction for 2027-2028 delivery hit the cap again at $333.44/MW-day—but this time PJM failed to procure enough capacity to meet its reliability standard, falling short by more than 6,600 megawatts (roughly 6.6 gigawatts). This shortfall triggered automatic review processes and raised serious questions about grid reliability.

PJM estimates these increases will raise electricity bills 1.5% to 5% for ratepayers depending on state, with some analyses suggesting costs could climb as high as 5-7% or approximately $126 per household in the 2027-28 delivery year.

What Caused the Capacity Crisis?

Three factors converged:

1. Explosive Data Center Demand: The forecast peak load for 2027-2028 is approximately 5,250 MW higher than the previous year's forecast. Nearly 5,100 MW (97%) of that increase comes from data center demand, particularly for artificial intelligence training and inference. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates data center electricity demand increased between 8 TWh (+5%) and 55 TWh (+31%) in 2024 alone—meaning data centers could account for 6% to 43% of total US demand growth in a single year.

2. Premature Retirement of Dispatchable Generation: Between 2010 and 2024, over 80,000 MW of dispatchable fossil fuel and nuclear generation retired. Over the next two years through 2026, another 20,000 MW will retire. Many retirements were forced by state mandates or made uneconomic by federal subsidies for competing renewable resources.

Key examples include New Jersey's Oyster Creek Nuclear Plant (shut down in 2019) and New York's Indian Point Nuclear Plant (closed in 2021). In 2025, generators plan to retire 8.1 GW of coal-fired capacity—the highest since the 10.9 GW originally planned—including the 1,800-MW Intermountain Power Project in Utah, the 1,331-MW J H Campbell plant in Michigan, and the 1,273-MW Brandon Shores plant in Maryland.

Coal retirements slowed temporarily to just 2.3 GW (1.3% of the fleet) in 2024 but are accelerating again. EPA power plant emission rules finalized in May 2024 are projected to speed coal retirements further, with coal-fired generation expected to be replaced by natural gas, energy storage, renewables, and existing nuclear plants.

3. Slow New Supply Addition: While wind and solar generation increased by about 240,000 MW between 2010 and 2024, these are not "dispatchable" resources—they cannot be controlled by grid operators to ensure supply always meets demand. When wind doesn't blow and sun doesn't shine, grid operators must call on dispatchable generation, but less of it exists.

PJM's interconnection queue is backlogged with projects seeking to connect to the grid. Despite efforts to fast-track 11.8 GW (mainly natural gas) in 2025, new supply isn't coming online fast enough to replace retiring plants and meet growing demand.

Jonathan Lesser, Senior Fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics, explains: "Retiring dispatchable generation means that grid operators have fewer resources to call on when needed. When wholesale electricity supply tightens, prices in capacity markets—which pay generators to be available when needed—soar."

Cause #4: The Renewable Integration Question

The role of wind and solar in rising electricity costs is perhaps the most politically contentious—and most misunderstood—aspect of the affordability crisis.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's October 2025 analysis found no strong correlation between utility-scale wind and solar deployment and recent residential price increases when examined across all states. In fact, LBNL's research indicated that states with market-based renewables adoption (where utilities choose renewables because they're economically competitive) showed slightly lower rates than average. States with mandatory renewable portfolio standards showed slightly higher rates.

When adjusted for inflation, real electricity prices in 2024 were the same as in 2019 and 8% lower than in 2010—a period during which solar generation increased from 1.2 TWh in 2010 to 303 TWh in 2024 (a 25,000% increase) and wind grew from 95 TWh to 437 TWh (a 360% increase).

Fresh Energy's analysis concurs: "Utility-scale wind and solar don't appear strongly related to recent price increases. It depends on where you build them and the market forces behind them. The U.S. is spending less on generating electricity and more on infrastructure moving it around via transmission and distribution."

Solar and wind now provide genuinely cheap electricity—often cheaper than gas-fired plants even without subsidies. But there's a critical caveat: they're intermittent. Solar only generates during daylight hours, with peak output when demand is often lower. Wind generation varies hour by hour, day by day, season by season.

The Hidden Cost: Lost Dispatchable Capacity

The problem isn't renewable generation itself—it's what happens to make room for it. Lesser's research found that generous federal subsidies for wind and solar plants have distorted electricity markets: "Oftentimes, there is so much wind and solar generation available that wholesale electric prices fall below zero, forcing unsubsidized generators that cannot operate profitably to retire."

Between 2010 and 2024, US generating capacity increased by about 200,000 MW (16%), but electricity sales grew only 5%. Basic economics suggests that increasing supply more than demand should lower prices—yet the opposite happened.

Why? Because 80,000+ MW of dispatchable generation retired during this period. The remaining dispatchable plants must now cover all hours when renewables can't, yet they run fewer hours annually, making them less economic. This forces more retirements in a vicious cycle.

When capacity becomes scarce—particularly during extreme weather when both electricity demand peaks and renewable output can drop—wholesale prices spike. Without sufficient dispatchable backup, grid operators must pay premium prices to secure reliability, costs ultimately passed to consumers.

The cleared resource mix in PJM's most recent capacity auction illustrates the challenge: 43% natural gas, 21% nuclear, 20% coal, 5% demand response, 4% hydro, 2% wind, 2% oil, and only 1% solar. Despite massive solar additions, it contributes minimally to reliable capacity because peak demand often occurs in evening hours after sunset or on cloudy winter days.

Cause #5: Regulatory Capture and the Failure of State Utility Commissions

State public utility commissions were created in the early 20th century ostensibly to keep the profit motive in check and protect consumers from utility monopolies. In practice, they've often failed this core mission.

"The whole thing is like the emperor's new clothes," says Mark Ellis, a senior fellow at the American Economic Liberties Project who testifies before state utility commissions as an independent expert witness. In a recent report, Ellis provided evidence that unwarranted rate increases cost customers $50 billion per year—about $300 for every US household.

The Information Asymmetry Problem:

The canyon of information asymmetry between public utility commissions and the utilities they regulate has given the latter near-carte blanche to squeeze ratepayers. According to Ellis, four consulting firms scour the country to testify in 90 percent of all commission rate cases, using economic models to estimate rates of return that aren't used in any other area of finance.

Many consultants use an "expected earnings" analysis that arrives at a rate of return based primarily on future forecasts that the company expects to receive—a completely circular analysis. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission banned the expected earnings model from use in federal hearings in 2022, but it continues to be used at the state level where most retail rates are set.

The Profit Motive Problem:

The traditional utility regulatory model allows companies to earn a regulated rate of return on capital investments. In theory, this ensures utilities can raise needed capital while protecting consumers from monopoly pricing. In practice, it creates perverse incentives.

Since higher capital spending yields a higher return, this model encourages utilities to build more infrastructure. Atlantic Council analysis explains: "It can also incentivize utilities to build more than necessary or pursue incremental upgrades that add up to higher costs, instead of more affordable holistic grid solutions."

Without prudent regulation, utilities can engage in "gold plating"—stacking up unnecessary capital investments paid by captive consumers. As Isaac Sevier, founder of Public Grids, told The American Prospect: The current system "has failed at its core promise of increasing competition, without lowering costs for working people, stabilizing costs, making services more reliable, increasing energy conservation, reducing private utility opposition to rooftop solar, and slowing upward wealth redistribution."

Political Capture:

Utility companies are major political donors and employ armies of lobbyists. Commissioner turnover is frequent, and regulators often come from—and return to—the industries they regulate. S&P Global's Regulatory Research Associates tracks regulatory risk across all 50 states, noting that commissioner changes and political turnover create significant uncertainty, often to utilities' benefit.

In New York, state legislators became so frustrated with the Public Service Commission's repeated approval of rate increases that they've proposed scrapping it entirely. "At this point for me, this is a declaration of war on the Public Service Commission," said state Senator James Skoufis in March 2025. "They are a pathetic excuse for a regulatory body here in New York state."

Senator Shelley Mayer added: "I have tried the incrementally nice approach. I have tried it for several years. I have been fighting with the commission for years. We are at the end of our rope."

The Data Center Subsidy Problem:

Perhaps nowhere is regulatory failure more evident than in how commissions handle data center costs. PJM's independent market monitor found that ordinary ratepayers are paying an additional $13.6 billion for the July 2025 to July 2026 delivery year for upgrades needed solely to accommodate increasing data center capacity.

"These additional costs effectively force ordinary ratepayers to subsidize the tech industry's growing power bills," according to Atlantic Council analysis. In November 2025, PJM's market monitor filed a formal complaint to FERC suggesting PJM should not approve any more new large data center interconnections until procedures improve.

Georgia's Public Service Commission took a different approach, approving a rule requiring data centers to contribute to power grid upgrades rather than passing costs onto residential consumers. But Georgia is the exception—most commissions continue approving cost allocation schemes that burden households while giving industrial customers special deals.

Commercial and Industrial Favoritism:

Research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that residential prices have risen 27% since 2019, while commercial and industrial prices rose only 19%. The researchers attributed this divergence in part to state regulation: "Because policymakers want to support the economic growth that comes from C&I customers, and because those customers advocate for themselves at the state level, they are often able to procure special rate deals."

Cause #6: Weather, Electrification, and Demand Growth

After 14 years of near-stagnant electricity demand growth from 2008 to 2021 (averaging just 0.1% per year), US electricity demand surged 3.0% in 2024—a 128 TWh increase. This marked the fifth highest level of demand growth this century.

Ember analysis found that approximately 25 TWh of the 128 TWh increase (about 20%) could be attributed to a much hotter summer in 2024 compared to 2023. Temperature-adjusted demand still rose an estimated 2.4%—driven by population growth, economic expansion, increasing electrification of transportation and heating, and data center/cryptocurrency mining expansion.

The impact of extreme weather on electricity costs extends beyond driving higher usage. More frequent and severe storms damage infrastructure, requiring costly repairs and hardening investments. Wildfire mitigation costs are substantial in Western states. Texas's grid failures during Winter Storm Uri in 2021 cost tens of billions, with utilities seeking to recover costs through rate increases.

What Can Actually Be Done?

The electricity affordability crisis stems from multiple, interconnected causes—infrastructure aging, fuel price volatility, capacity market failures, regulatory capture, demand growth, and an energy transition strategy that may be retiring reliable generation faster than dispatchable alternatives can be built.

For Individual Consumers:

Check if you're in a deregulated market: About a third of states allow residential customers to choose their electricity supplier. If available, compare fixed-rate plans that can lock in prices for years and protect against rate hikes. Variable rate plans leave you exposed to monthly price fluctuations.

Conduct a home energy audit: Professional audits cost several hundred dollars but identify improvements that can cut energy bills up to 30%. Common recommendations include sealing drafty doors, adding insulation, and adjusting water heater temperatures.

Demand response programs: Many utilities offer programs that pay you to reduce consumption during peak hours or allow the utility to cycle off your air conditioner compressor briefly during emergencies.

Solar and battery storage: While initial costs are substantial, rooftop solar with battery backup can insulate you from rate increases and provide backup power during outages. Federal tax credits currently cover 30% of system costs.

For Policymakers and Regulators:

Reform state utility commissions: Increase commissioner qualifications, provide adequate technical staff support to counter utility information advantages, and ban the use of discredited economic models like "expected earnings" analysis. Consider requiring commissioners to wait several years before joining utilities they regulated.

Fix capacity markets: FERC and regional grid operators must address the fundamental problem—premature retirement of dispatchable generation without adequate replacement. Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro's approach of demanding price caps saved ratepayers $18.2 billion in two auctions, but caps don't solve the underlying supply shortage.

Rationalize data center interconnections: New large loads should pay the full cost of necessary grid upgrades, not socialize costs to existing customers. PJM's market monitor is right to recommend no new data center approvals until better procedures exist.

Accelerate transmission build-out: DOE should expand the National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors program to pre-designate land for transmission infrastructure and streamline permitting. FERC Order 1920-B requires ten-year planning studies, but more aggressive action is needed.

Reconsider renewable integration strategy: The evidence suggests wind and solar can provide low-cost electricity, but the pace of dispatchable plant retirements may be too fast for reliable grid operation. States should consider mechanisms to retain existing nuclear plants and efficient natural gas generators until sufficient energy storage exists to back up intermittent renewables.

Reform cost allocation: Utilities should not be able to automatically recover all capital costs. Commissions must scrutinize whether investments are truly necessary or represent "gold plating." Alternative models like performance-based regulation that reward efficiency over capital expenditure deserve consideration.

The Bottom Line

Your rising electric bill results from a perfect storm: decades of deferred infrastructure maintenance coming due at the worst possible time; volatile natural gas prices driven by expanding LNG exports; an energy transition strategy that retired too much reliable generation before adequate replacement capacity existed; explosive data center demand that utilities are making you subsidize; and state regulatory commissions captured by the industries they're supposed to control.

Simple explanations—"it's all renewables' fault" or "fossil fuels are gouging us"—miss the complex reality. Electricity costs are rising primarily because of infrastructure replacement needs, fuel costs, and market structure failures, not the shift to wind and solar per se. However, the loss of dispatchable generation capacity to make room for intermittent renewables without adequate storage or backup has created the capacity crisis driving wholesale prices to record levels in some regions.

Until policymakers address the root causes—regulatory capture, inadequate transmission planning, premature dispatchable plant retirements, and inequitable cost allocation—Americans should expect their electricity bills to keep climbing. ICF's projection of 15-40% increases by 2030 may prove optimistic if current trends continue.

The question isn't whether your electric bill will keep rising. It's whether regulators and policymakers will finally act to make the increases more modest, more equitable, and tied to genuine improvements in service rather than unjustified utility profits and inadequate planning.

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This investigation draws upon official government data, academic research, regulatory filings, and independent market analysis. All monetary figures are in US dollars. Percentage calculations based on source data.